關(guān)于比特幣 (BTC) 四年一次的減半事件，目前仍有很多未知之處，該事件使比特幣礦工獲得的區(qū)塊獎勵減少了 50%，而比特幣礦工在驗證 BTC 交易和保護(hù)系統(tǒng)安全方面發(fā)揮著關(guān)鍵作用。

礦工會破產(chǎn)還是逃離網(wǎng)絡(luò)？

算力會崩潰嗎？

比特幣價格會先漲后跌嗎？

減半會刺激加密貨幣的進(jìn)一步采用嗎？

等等。

但有一點是確定的：每隔四年，礦工的區(qū)塊獎勵就會減少一半——這是預(yù)先編碼到網(wǎng)絡(luò)中的——并且在 2024 年 4 月的某個時候，一旦第 210,000 個區(qū)塊被驗證，礦工的獎勵將從每個區(qū)塊 6.25 BTC 至 3.125。

所有的減半都相似又不同，但今年的減半可能是獨一無二的，因為一月份推出的新現(xiàn)貨市場比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）幫助將比特幣的價格推至歷史新高，使加密貨幣整個行業(yè)的市值接近 3 萬億美元。

這就提出了另一個問題：鑒于比特幣ETF似乎讓許多機(jī)構(gòu)開始關(guān)注比特幣作為替代資產(chǎn)，四月份的減半是否會加速這一趨勢？

有些人這么認(rèn)為。

Swan Bitcoin 業(yè)務(wù)主管 Dante Cook 告訴 Cointelegraph：“機(jī)構(gòu)仍在了解這一資產(chǎn)類別，但了解比特幣的貨幣政策只會引發(fā)更多興趣?！?/p>

減半是一個重要的證明，“盡管‘安全預(yù)算’較低，但比特幣安全仍可以繼續(xù)，”盧克索科技公司首席運(yùn)營官 Ethan Vera 告訴 Cointelegraph，并補(bǔ)充道：

“我們預(yù)計機(jī)構(gòu)對基礎(chǔ)商品以及在該領(lǐng)域運(yùn)營的公司（例如礦商）將持續(xù)產(chǎn)生興趣?！?/p>

B. Riley Securities 高級董事總經(jīng)理 Joe Nardini 補(bǔ)充道，對于想要購買代幣本身的機(jī)構(gòu)來說，將整體獎勵減少一半可以說是一種誘惑。

Nardini 告訴 Cointelegraph，更多證據(jù)表明 BTC 供應(yīng)量不會激增，這對許多潛在機(jī)構(gòu)投資者來說是“凈利好”。

然而，并非所有人都認(rèn)為減半本身就會讓考慮加密貨幣的大公司或金融機(jī)構(gòu)加入比特幣。

Stifel Financial 投資銀行總監(jiān) Ruben Sahakyan 告訴 Cointelegraph：“減半不會影響大公司/機(jī)構(gòu)投資者是否會首次投資比特幣。”

Sahakyan 繼續(xù)說道，投資者顯然已經(jīng)接受了現(xiàn)貨市場比特幣 ETF（從凈流入來看），進(jìn)一步明確監(jiān)管將有助于推動行業(yè)采用和投資者基礎(chǔ)。

“然而，一些投資者在投資礦業(yè)股時持觀望態(tài)度，因為他們等待減半對礦商盈利能力和波動性的影響減少?！?/p>

Others suggested that halvings may not be quite as they used to be, i.e., fraught with drama.

“The halving is likely not as big an event as the industry is well prepared and has been deleveraging in anticipation of the potentially reduced economics,” Taras Kulyk, founder and CEO of SunnySide Digital, an infrastructure provider, told Cointelegraph. “Additionally, the massive growth of L2 technologies on top of the Bitcoin Network has increased transaction fees — blunting the impact of the halving even more.”

A “halving-induced” upswing?

Historically, Bitcoin has risen in price in the months leading up to a halving, which is happening again in 2024. Indeed, a JPMorgan analyst referred at the end of February to a “Bitcoin-halving-induced euphoria” gripping the crypto market. But is that really the case?

“There are two major narratives and drivers for Bitcoin currently,” Chris Kuiper, director of research at Fidelity Digital Assets (FDA), told Cointelegraph. The first is the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETPs [exchange-traded products], which was a major milestone in Bitcoin’s history and a continued road to adoption.”

The second, Kuiper continued, is the upcoming halving. “As in the past, it’s expected that there will be little effect on the Bitcoin network itself. We may see an initial fall in hash rate, but it will likely only be a matter of time before it recovers to its previous levels and once again moves higher, which wouldn’t affect the operation of the network.”

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Which of these two events is more impactful? We don’t know if the price surge results from the halving or the spot market Bitcoin ETF approvals, B. Riley Securities’ Nardini said, but it’s more likely “ETF induced,” in his opinion.

The JPMorgan analyst also warned the price of Bitcoin could drop to $42,000 after the halving. That, too, would follow the script of past halvings. Hash rate — the overall computing power of the network — is what makes the Bitcoin network more secure. In the past three halvings (2020, 2016, and 2012), the hash rate fell initially but quickly recovered within six to 31 days.

“What is different today from historical halvings are the ETFs, which have dramatically changed the Bitcoin ecosystem,” Clark Swanson, entrepreneur and former CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Blockcap, told Cointelegraph.

The new ETFs have created a “demand shock to Bitcoin’s limited supply,” said Swanson. This will “drive prices even higher and blunt some of the market forces that have traditionally posed challenges for miners.”

“Post halving, there is going to be exactly 50% less Bitcoin produced — or available for sale — while ETF demand seems to remain, which should continue to drive volatility,” agreed Sahakyan. “Some of the miners have again started building up BTC balance sheets, which further reduces the available supply of Bitcoin.”

Others, however, anticipate some surprises. Aki Balogh, co-founder and CEO of DLC.Link, told Cointelegraph that “the supply shock that will come from reduced mining revenues is real and will play some effect.”

Some of that has already been priced in, “but there are unknown second and third-derivative effects that will only come out after the halving has happened,” continued Balogh. Still, “I think scarcity will push the price up somewhat.”

In the longer term, history suggests the hash rate will recover, and the price of Bitcoin continue its ascent to new heights. The halving is a unique situation where the block reward periodically decreases, and in this way, “the inflation rate of the netwo