比特幣以波動和新的歷史高點開始了新的一周，因為比特幣價格波動仍然牢牢占據(jù)主導地位。

這種最大的加密貨幣已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下了有史以來最高的周收盤價，但多頭在突破更高點時仍然面臨著嚴峻的阻力。

隨著價格發(fā)現(xiàn)之戰(zhàn)愈演愈烈，比特幣陷入了一種熟悉的不斷變化的狀態(tài)——關鍵心理價格水平的拋售壓力，加上現(xiàn)貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的持續(xù)競價。

本周哪個將占據(jù)上風？

很少有人對 ETF 購買帶來的影響規(guī)模做好準備。

即使是長期看漲的人也在重新評估他們認為 BTC/USD 在未來幾年可能的走勢，從長期來看，100 萬美元越來越被視為保守。

相反，其他人警告說，加速的牛市可能會比預期更早引發(fā)宏觀比特幣價格見頂。

臨近目前，美國宏觀數(shù)據(jù)即將公布，這將為美聯(lián)儲即將做出的利率決定“定下基調”。

與此同時，隨著比特幣處于十字路口，礦商們正在抓緊時間在四月份的區(qū)塊補貼減半之前鎖定利潤。

Cointelegraph 在每周潛在 BTC 價格波動催化劑概要中仔細研究了這些主題以及更多內容。

比特幣價格發(fā)現(xiàn)之前創(chuàng)下每周新高

比特幣在 3 月 10 日的周收盤價中經(jīng)歷了經(jīng)典的波動，結果很容易創(chuàng)下歷史最高水平。

Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的數(shù)據(jù)證實，比特幣/美元在 69,000 美元的高位未能持續(xù)，幾分鐘后急劇下行，跌至 67,120 美元。

BTC/美元 1 小時圖。

來源：TradingView

與上周觸及的 69,000 美元區(qū)域相呼應，隨后出現(xiàn)了緩解性反彈——最終將比特幣在 3 月 11 日的亞洲交易時段創(chuàng)下歷史新高。

受歡迎的交易商 Skew 在 X（前身為 Twitter）上的回應中寫道：“由于缺乏現(xiàn)貨出價，價格仍在 7 萬美元左右下跌?！?/p>

Skew 強調 63,500 美元至 65,500 美元之間的區(qū)域是保持當前上漲趨勢的關鍵，如果接下來出現(xiàn)更大幅度的下跌的話。

“開始看到 6 萬美元起的更可觀的出價，可能是暴跌保護出價，”他在談到全球最大交易所幣安的現(xiàn)貨訂單簿行為時說道。

“由于缺乏被動的現(xiàn)貨買家，整體價格大幅下跌?！?/p>

Adding to the picture, Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, revealed the on-chain movement of coins previously dormant for up to a decade.

He referenced the Spent Output Age Bands metric, which groups coins involved in transactions by how long they were previously stationary on the network.

“Before the drawdown, there was a movement of 2,877 BTC with an age of 7 to 10 years,” he wrote about the weekly close.

Bitcoin Spent Output Age Bands. Source: Maartunn on X

CPI week looms with Fed rate cut bets absent

Another “classic” week in terms of U.S. macroeconomic data is due to be headlined by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for February.

Due on March 12, CPI makes for volatile short-term trading across risk assets, while Bitcoin offers mixed reactions.

The current narrative around inflation and Fed policy remains disjointed. Markets are eager to see interest rate cuts, while Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell last week, are attempting to cool their expectations.

The nature of CPI figures and other data points will thus form a key reference point, with the next Fed meeting just over one week away.

“A hot CPI inflation report this week would really set the tone of the March Fed meeting,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its weekly diary post on X.

“Huge week ahead.”

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

According to the latest estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, hardly anyone sees a surprise rate cut at this month’s gathering, with the odds at a mere 3% at the time of writing.

Other key data to come this week include the Producer Price Index, or PPI, along with jobless claims on March 13 and 15, respectively.

ETF Bitcoin buyer pressure seen expanding

Bitcoin market observers are waiting for one thing as the week begins: the resumption of buying by the spot ETFs.

Now the most successful ETF launch in history, the nine participants have presided over a BTC price transformation that many see continuing.

While reservations are visible, ETFs may see waning demand and thus no longer buoy the price trajectory, so a sense of optimism among institutions now stands out.

Last week, Cathie Wood, CEO of asset manager ARK Invest, said that the firm’s $1-million BTC price target for 2023 had been “brought forward.”

“No platform has approved Bitcoin yet, so all of this price action has happened before they approve it, and so we haven’t even begun,” she said about the absence of major U.S. wirehouses such as Morgan Stanley and UBS.

As Cointelegraph subsequently reported, industry insiders are gearing up for this to happen and the price impact that could follow.

In a memo on March 9, crypto-native asset manager Bitwise listed “major warehouses,” “institutional consultants” and “l(fā)arge corporations” as being next in line to add BTC exposure.

“根據(jù)目前的趨勢，我懷疑我們將在 2024 年第二季度看到來自這三個群體的首次大量資金流入，而且我認為，隨著這些投資者對新產品更加滿意，這些資金流入將在全年加速，”首席投資馬特·霍根警官寫道。

比特幣 ETF 凈流量。

來源：阿波羅

礦商外流如雨后春筍般涌現(xiàn)，普埃爾市盈率接近多年高點

比特幣在下一次減半之前創(chuàng)下了歷史新高，這是其歷史上獨一無二的事件。

這讓很多人感到驚訝，礦工似乎也不例外。

盡管即將到來的減半使他們面臨的每個區(qū)塊“新”比特幣減少了 50%，但礦商們在高位附近大幅提高了拋售量。

CryptoQuant 數(shù)據(jù)顯示，這種現(xiàn)象在 2024 年一直存在，自 1 月 11 日 ETF 推出以來，礦工錢包就開始流出。

比特幣礦工資金外流。

來源：CryptoQuant

與此同時，CryptoQuant 撰稿人 Julio Moreno 在 X 上透露，3 月 7 日的每日總收入達到 7590 萬美元，創(chuàng)歷史第二高。

比特幣礦工每日收入。

資料來源：X 上的 Julio Moreno

“隨著最近比特幣價格的飆升，礦工收入迅速增加，”交易套件 DecenTrader 3 月 11 日繼續(xù)談論這個話題。

DecenTrader 引用了 Puell Multiple（衡量代幣發(fā)行價值相對于年度移動平均值的指標），觸及六年來的最高水平。

多重功能可作為宏觀頂部和底部的指導。

它指出：“這導致普埃爾多重得分為+2.4，這在歷史上處于較高水平——盡管沒有之前周期的峰值那么高?！?/p>

比特幣普埃爾倍數(shù)。<